A giant sunspot may be about to erupt, sending out the most powerful form of
solar flares growing for days.
Sunspot AR3089, which is facing towards the Earth, has now developed a
delta-class magnetic field, meaning that it has built up enough energy that
it may release X-class solar flares.
According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there
is around a five percent chance that the sunspot will release an X-class
flare. If it does, the flare may trigger a powerful geomagnetic storm in the
Earth's atmosphere, possibly resulting in damage to infrastructure and
electromagnetic communication systems.
Sunspots are darker areas on the sun's surface where coronal magnetic fields
are particularly strong. When these strong magnetic fields realign
themselves, this can eject solar flares, which are spurts of electromagnetic
radiation, as well as giant plumes of solar plasma known as coronal mass
ejections (CMEs).
According to spaceweatherlive.com, delta-class fields are usually associated
with higher levels of solar activity, due to causing very big sunspots with
a reversed magnetic polarity.
Solar flares ejected from sunspots are classified based on how powerful the
X-rays are: C-class, M-class and X-class. C-class flares are common and have
few noticeable effects on Earth, M-class flares are medium intensity and may
cause minor geomagnetic storms, while X-class flares are the most powerful,
but least frequent. X-class flares are 10 times more powerful than M-class,
and an X10 flare is in turn 10 times more powerful than an X1 flare.
While the chances of an X-class flare occurring from sunspot AR3089 is low,
if one were to occur, the resulting geomagnetic storms could have damaging
effects on the Earth. According to NASA, X-class flares hitting Earth may
result in damage to satellites, global transmission problems, worldwide
radio blackouts, and potentially give airline passengers near the North and
South poles small radiation doses.
GPS radio signals must pass through the Earth's ionosphere between the Earth
receiver and the satellite in orbit, meaning that when a geomagnetic storm
is in effect and the ionosphere is disturbed, the radio signal is distorted
and the receivers cannot accurately get a position.
The largest and most powerful X-class flare to hit the Earth is thought to
have caused the 1859 Carrington Event, which resulted in bright aurorae
being seen around the world, and caused sparking and even fires in some
telegraph stations. It's thought that if a storm of this magnitude occurred
today, it would result in extended outages of the electrical power grid.
The sun's activity follows 11-year cycles, with its sunspot activity levels
and subsequent number of solar flares and CMEs increasing as it approaches
the solar maximum. The last solar minimum was in December 2019, and the next
solar maximum is forecasted for 2025, however, the sun's activity is higher
than previously predicted for its cycle stage.
Solar Cycle 25, the current cycle, is the 25th cycle that has occurred since
we began recording sunspot activity in 1755, and according to
spaceweather.com, "is on track to outperform" Solar Cycle 24.
Solar Cycle 24 was an average cycle in terms of sunspot activity, meaning
that more frequent and more powerful solar flares and CMEs are to be
expected in coming years compared to the previous decade.
Source: Link
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Space & Astrophysics